Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.Tropical storms are areas of extremely low pressure on the earth’s surface. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the watch area Monday night and early Tuesday. Western Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches.įlorida Keys to the southern and western Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches through Wednesday morning. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 8 inches. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Cuba by Monday night or early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by tonight or early Monday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. National Hurricane Center Forecast Notes:GFS Model Animation: Thursday Sep 29 to Sunday Oct 1 There may be more adjustments as the storm gets better organized, so this is NOT locked in yet. This is longer than I showed yesterday with this model, all based on the shift in landfall track. Rain is likely to reach the Mid Atlantic Saturday, and may last into Sunday morning. This will allow more moisture to push farther north… This shows landfall on the Florida Panhandle, which is much farther west than the NHC initial forecast south of Tampa. The GFS Model seems to be the best at handling the shift farther west, and it continues to track on the west or LEFT side of the Cone of Uncertainty. Looking Ahead To The US Landfall And Inland This is when it will push inland and bring heavy rain up to the Mid Atlantic. North inland push, then it will lose its tropical characteristics. It has already shifted farther West from the initial forecast, so this is not a lock for Tampa. NHC Forecast Notes are below the Interactive Wind Widget Cancun looks to stay just on the edge of the storm, which happens to be the weaker side of the storm. Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman, Hurricane Watch for western Cuba. If we see that same bias with Ian, it could make a big difference in the potential intensity and where it ends up in the US. I need point out that the last couple of storms, including Fiona, trended to the LEFT side of the initial track. □ Landfall: Western Cuba –> Then Florida Panhandle /lUELX6TjfIĪlmost all models show Ian reaching Category 3 or higher by early next week.įorecast Track/Cone: National Hurricane Center Sunday Morning September 25 #TropicalStormIan satellite (WIDE Caribbean/Gulf) Sunday Morning September 25 #TropicalStormIan satellite (CLOSE) (I have to embed from my Twitter feed until I can fix the animations) Close Up Tropical Storm force winds extend 60 miles from the center.See the maps below, Tropical Storm Ian Quick Stats Heavy rain is expected to reach the Mid Atlantic next weekend. Governor Ron DeSantis has placed the entire state of Florida under a State of Emergency and the next Artemis Rocket Launch attempt has been scrubbed by NASA. That western shift now keeps it farther west of Tampa, with landfall closer to Pensacola. Ian is expected to become a Major Hurricane Category 3 or higher before hitting far western Cuba Tuesday, then remain strong while entering the Gulf of Mexico. That is why there is a cone of uncertainty, however it still includes Cuba and Florida. The one trend I have suggested is being verified: The track continues to shift a little farther west. Tropical Storm Ian is slowly organizing in the Caribbean and there is a warning out for The Cayman Islands.
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